Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Confidence in SpaceX Despite Booster Landing Setback

SpaceX's recent Integrated Flight Test 13 of its Starship system, while not achieving a perfect recovery of the Super Heavy booster, delivered a net positive outcome that has strengthened market conviction. In a newly issued research note, Morgan Stanley analysts emphasized that the mission's overall successes far outweighed the single setback.

Key Milestones Trump Recovery Hiccup

The focus, according to the report, should be on the strategic milestones accomplished. The flight successfully validated several critical objectives: the first-ever deployment of next-generation Starlink V3 Mini satellites, a successful in-space engine restart of the Ship upper stage, and what was described as the smoothest ocean splashdown to date. These achievements collectively represent meaningful progress toward a fully and rapidly reusable launch system.

The Next Major Catalyst: “Chopstick” Catch Attempt

Morgan Stanley pinpointed the upcoming milestone that investors should watch. The analysis suggests that if Flight 14 attempts—and potentially achieves—the revolutionary feat of using the launch tower's mechanical arms to directly catch the returning Ship upper stage mid-air, it could serve as a powerful catalyst for SpaceX's valuation. This capability is central to achieving the rapid turnaround and cost efficiency Starship promises.

Overweight Rating and $300 Price Target Reiterated

Citing the consistent and rapid pace of technical iteration demonstrated by the Starship program, alongside SpaceX's long-term potential in arenas like AI infrastructure and global connectivity, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on SpaceX stock. The firm reaffirmed its $300 per share price target.

Foundational to a “Space & AI” Ecosystem

The report elaborated on Starship's strategic role, framing it not merely as a launch vehicle but as the foundational pillar for a future integrated business ecosystem. The ultra-low cost and high flight frequency Starship aims for are prerequisites for two overarching visions:

  • Accelerating the Starlink V3 Constellation: Enabling high-throughput, low-latency global satellite broadband.
  • Orbital Compute Deployment: Providing unique space-based computational infrastructure for next-generation AI applications.

As these efforts advance in parallel, SpaceX is positioned to extend its leadership in commercial space into a potentially dominant dual role at the intersection of space and AI infrastructure.