Short-Term Holiday Bump Masks Broader Weakness
A strong December jobs number—potentially exceeding 105,000 new positions due to seasonal hiring—may paint a rosy picture, but economists caution against reading too much into it. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that such figures could misrepresent the labor market’s true momentum, driven more by temporary factors than sustained demand.
2025 Shaping Up as Weakest Labor Year in Two Decades
FactSet forecasts suggest total job growth for the year will land around 710,000, a figure that, if realized, would mark the poorest non-recession performance since 2003. Heather Long from Navy Federal Credit Union highlights that even the fragile recovery year of 2010 saw stronger hiring momentum than what 2025 is on track to deliver.
Structural Slowdown Takes Hold
- Underlying hiring trends have weakened across sectors, from tech to services
- Business investment and expansion plans remain cautious
- Demand for labor is softening despite low unemployment
Economists agree: one strong month won’t rewrite the narrative. The real story is a prolonged, structural deceleration in employment growth that points to deeper economic headwinds ahead.