Institutional Demand Diverges from Actual Fund Flows
Analyst Axel recently highlighted that data over the past week reveals a widening gap between institutional investor demand and actual fund flows in the Bitcoin market. Despite strong enthusiasm for institutional participation, ETF inflows remain inconsistent, while exchange net flows continue to stay positive, with tokens flowing into rather than out of exchanges.
- Unstable ETF inflow momentum
- Exchange net flows remain positive
- Tokens continue to flow into exchanges
Significant ETF Outflows
In the past 7 days, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached 11,042 BTC, with only two days recording net inflows. On February 12 alone, outflows hit 6,120 BTC (approximately $416 million), marking the largest single-day outflow in this cycle. February 17 and 18 also saw outflows of 1,520 and 1,980 BTC, respectively, indicating that institutional accumulation has yet to establish a consistent trend.
Exchange Inflows Continue to Rise
At the same time, Bitcoin supply on exchanges keeps increasing. Since early February, exchange net flows have remained positive, ranging between +391 and +841 BTC over the past week. Today’s reading stands at +553 BTC, continuing the two-week trend of positive inflows. This contrasts sharply with January’s pattern, where tokens were consistently withdrawn from exchanges.
Key Variables for Market Direction
Axel emphasized that both key indicators point to the same trend: continued ETF outflows and rising exchange inflows. Institutional demand is not only failing to absorb new supply but also contributing additional selling pressure. A positive accumulation trend would require at least three consecutive days of ETF net inflows and a shift in exchange net flows to negative (indicating tokens being withdrawn for custody). ETF flows over the next 3 to 5 trading days will be critical in determining the market’s direction.